Deep Dive Analysis
United Stables (U)
2026-10-10 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.00
1.00
52W HIGH
1.00
1.00
DRAWDOWN
-0.1%
-0.1%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 2 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD bull cross, near 52w high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.62)
U Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.00
Low: 1.00
Now: 1.00
Low: 1.00
Now: 1.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 49.2 | ADX (14) | 9.1 |
| 50d MA | 1.00 | 200d MA | 1.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.00 | Resistance | 1.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.01%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| U | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% |
| BTC | +2.1% | +27.7% | +16.3% | +7.7% |
| ETH | -4.8% | +30.9% | +25.1% | +10.5% |
| SOL | -0.5% | +45.4% | +36.2% | +9.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,989
RETURN
-0.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-0.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| U | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 9 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (U)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -0.0% | 14,987 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -0.0% | 14,993 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -0.0% | 14,996 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.0% | 14,996 |
U Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.00 (-0.0%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (0.1%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (0.1%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-17 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-07-22 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-07-27 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-07-28 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-07-29 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-07-30 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 1.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
a full year pinned at exactly 1.00 and the trend system still lost 0.1%. somehow impressive
the bear factors are literally that it is a stablecoin doing stablecoin things. my favorite genre of analysis
2 bull vs 6 bear factors on a dollar peg is my favorite rating ever. next week: water is wet, risk rating neutral
wait it gets better, the banner literally says stage 4 downtrend on a 0.1 percent drawdown. the system declared a bear market on a dollar
stage 4 downtrend on a 0.1 percent drawdown is the funniest banner of the year. system called nine entries on a flat dollar, got chopped up by fees, and still closed on HOLD. nobody once considered just doing nothing
the kicker is half the bear column is just momentum stats on a coin that never moves. vol ratio 0.62 and obv down on a dollar peg, might as well call sideways a crisis
stage 4 downtrend on a dollar peg should be printed and framed honestly
9 trades, 0% win rate. the system chopped itself to death on a coin that doesnt move lol
0 for 9 on a coin pinned at 1.00 is almost impressive. the system got farmed by a dollar
the fee math on 0 for 9 probably still beats most altcoin portfolios this quarter tbh. losing 0.1 percent is the most stable thing in crypto
^ exactly. real question is why a 15k trend system got pointed at a coin that printed the same price for 52 straight weeks. hold means hold lol
^ same. jentenull_ said it first but the 52 week flatline vs active trading contrast is the whole story here
jentenull_ is right that hold means hold, but someone chose to run trend logic on a 52 week flatline. that decision is the real story, not the outcome
the system wasnt farmed, it farmed itself. nine trend entries on a coin with a 52 week range of basically zero, the signals were the only moving part
Farmed by a dollar is exactly right. Nine trades, 0.1% bleed, and the 15k plan ends on a HOLD because there was nothing to trend on. Fees and spread did more damage than the market ever did.
0 for 9 and still only down 0.1 percent. as far as system failures go this one is basically a nap
losing 0.1 percent on a flat coin takes genuine talent. whoever ran that system should teach a masterclass in fees
that 0.1 percent is just rebalancing fees from churning a 15k stack across the deployment tranches. flat asset, moving parts, the friction does the rest
attendance should be mandatory tbh. nine entries on a coin pinned at 1.00 and the only party that got paid was whoever collected the spread
pinned at 1.00 for a full year and the system still bled 0.1% to fees and spread, thats the stablecoin thesis in one backtest. only line that matters now is whether the redemption window holds under actual stress
2 bull vs 6 bear factors on a stablecoin is comedy. the bear case is basically that it does nothing, which, fair
The only signal on a chart like this is the redemption window holding. Price has said nothing for a year, operations are the chart.
redemption window holding is the only line worth reading in this entire analysis, Bram V. gets it
^ exactly. for something pinned at 1.00 the redemption window is the whole thesis, the rest is a trend system starving for volatility. nine trades of chop is just fees waving hello
redemption window plus attestation cadence is the whole due diligence file for a stablecoin. the rest is chart astrology