Deep Dive Analysis
Ondo US Dollar Yield (USDY)
2026-10-01 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.15
1.15
52W HIGH
1.36
1.36
DRAWDOWN
-15.7%
-15.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (53.4), rising 1m & 3m
Bearish factors: vol 1.24x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.43)
USDY Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.12
Low: 1.07
Now: 1.15
Low: 1.07
Now: 1.15
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 53.4 | ADX (14) | 9.7 |
| 50d MA | 1.14 | 200d MA | 1.14 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.14 | Resistance | 1.15 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.14%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| USDY | +0.2% | +0.5% | +1.3% | +2.6% |
| BTC | +9.7% | +29.8% | +9.6% | -6.1% |
| ETH | +10.3% | +40.2% | +27.1% | -8.9% |
| SOL | +18.9% | +57.6% | +37.0% | -7.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
13,975
RETURN
-6.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-6.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| USDY | -6.8% | +1.4% | -6.9% | 7 | 14% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (USDY)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +2.6% | 15,211 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +1.0% | 15,151 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.9% | 15,141 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.9% | 15,132 |
USDY Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.14 (-0.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-12.8%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-12.8%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-19 | BUY | 1.13 | |
| 2026-05-27 | SELL | 1.09 | -3.3% |
| 2026-05-29 | BUY | 1.13 | |
| 2026-06-16 | SELL | 1.13 | -0.5% |
| 2026-06-18 | BUY | 1.14 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | 1.14 | +0.2% |
| 2026-08-20 | BUY | 1.14 | |
| 2026-08-23 | SELL | 1.14 | -0.1% |
| 2026-08-24 | BUY | 1.14 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 1.14 | -0.3% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 1.15 | |
| END | SELL | 1.15 | -0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-01 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
stop loss 0.3% below entry on a token pegged near a dollar. the spread alone will stop you out on a tuesday
a hold with a 0.3 pct stop on a token near a dollar is just a sell with extra steps. one thin tbill day stops you out for nothing
the 0.3 pct stop got me on a similar call last year, stopped on spread noise then watched it reclaim in a day. wide stop or no position
exactly, the 0.3 stop is decorative on a 1.15 token. the real risk is a redemption gate, no stop order saves you from that
decorative is generous, its a tell. the model knows a 0.3 stop on a 1.15 token fires on spread noise, so the WAIT tag is quietly doing all the work here
^ the stop exists so the disclaimer has a number in it. nobody parking 3,750 at 1.15 is getting saved by 30 bps
wide stop or no position is right. the spread on these yield tokens is wider than a 0.3 pct stop anyway, hold for the tbill carry and ignore the chart
^ correct read. anyone running a tight stop on a token pegged near a dollar is just donating spread to the market maker
^ the 0.3 percent stop on something pegged near a dollar had me laughing. one thin funding hour and youre stopped for no reason
HOLD rating but 25% of the portfolio at 3,750? thats a bold allocation for something you re neutral on
makes sense if the yield is the whole point. you park it there and stop looking at the chart, the targets barely matter
25 pct on a near-dollar token is the model treating USDY like cash. the whole point of the hold tag is you park it and stop narrating
25 pct at 3,750 is bold but the drawdown already happened and the peg held. the yield pays you to wait it out
3,750 of 15k into a yield token under a HOLD rating. thats not neutrality, thats conviction wearing a seatbelt
1.15 vs a 1.36 high and the call is WAIT. fair tbh, obv down with a vol ratio of 0.43 usually means someone is quietly unloading
distribution on a yield token barely matters, most of these holders are parked for the tbill spread not the chart lol
it matters the day secondary liquidity thins and the parked crowd all tries the door at once. tbill tokens are only calm while nobody moves
parked for the spread until the first gating event. tbill yield doesnt save you if redemptions pause for a week
has USDY ever actually gated tho? genuine question, ondo keeps pointing at permissionless secondary like it makes the question moot
^ it had transfer restrictions back in the permissioned days before secondary existed, which is exactly why they market the permissionless part so hard now
tbill spread holders are exactly who gets burned when redemptions gate. the chart matters most precisely when everyone parked for yield
Honestly holding USDY for the yield at 15% off the high is fine with me. Stage 2 intact, RSI at 53, nothing broken yet
USDY at 15 pct off the high paying tbill yield is fine until a gate event. the chart is the least interesting part of this hold
first time USDY gets the full deep dive treatment instead of OUSG. ondo quietly turning these weekly reports into the best marketing RWA has going
vol ratio 0.43 with obv down and the call is still HOLD. rare chart where the coupon matters more than every indicator combined