Deep Dive Analysis
Venice Token (VVV)
2026-10-13 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
22.44
22.44
52W HIGH
31.98
31.98
DRAWDOWN
-29.8%
-29.8%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (42.4), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.57)
VVV Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2.26
Low: 0.95
Now: 22.44
Low: 0.95
Now: 22.44
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 42.4 | ADX (14) | 18.3 |
| 50d MA | 23.73 | 200d MA | 15.28 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 21.32 | Resistance | 31.98 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.06%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| VVV | -29.7% | +95.3% | +34.5% | +893.2% |
| BTC | -2.7% | +31.9% | +31.4% | +14.8% |
| ETH | -8.1% | +34.4% | +42.9% | +18.0% |
| SOL | -8.6% | +42.1% | +57.6% | +17.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
32,514
RETURN
+116.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-47.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| VVV | +116.8% | +141.8% | -47.2% | 8 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (VVV)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +893.2% | 36,275 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +79.1% | 26,863 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +66.9% | 25,037 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +54.9% | 23,228 |
VVV Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 19.72 (-12.1%) |
| Target 1 | 26.00 (15.9%) |
| Target 2 | 28.00 (24.8%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-06-12 | BUY | 14.63 | |
| 2026-06-13 | SELL | 14.26 | -2.5% |
| 2026-06-14 | BUY | 16.60 | |
| 2026-06-19 | SELL | 14.43 | -13.1% |
| 2026-08-19 | BUY | 14.05 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 17.78 | +26.6% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 16.08 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 25.88 | +61.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 22.63 | |
| 2026-10-09 | SELL | 22.79 | +0.7% |
| 2026-10-12 | BUY | 24.69 | |
| 2026-10-13 | SELL | 22.36 | -9.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-13 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-29.8% off the 31.98 high and stage 1 bottoming, this is where i usually buy too early and regret it. wait is the right tag
bought the VVV dip at 24 last month, sitting at 22.44 now. holding hurts less than selling at the bottom i guess
price above the 200d with a golden cross and rising 50d, yet 4 bear factors win. shows you how weak the trend structure still is under the hood
^ this. low conviction wait on a 15k deployment plan is the honest answer, most analysis would have forced a buy rating here
a golden cross means nothing when 4 bear factors are still on the board. low volume crosses like this fail more often than they play out
3 bull vs 4 bear factors is a coin flip with extra steps. wait is the only honest tag for stage 1
bought at 24 too, told myself 22 was the floor. its never the floor lol. stage 1 bottoming can drag for months
support at 21.32 is barely 5 percent below spot, thats the actual line that decides hold vs cut. everything else is noise
22.44 held twice now on this chart. if it prints a third touch i am finally adding, until then low conviction wait is free
double bagholder here, my cost basis is 26. the stage 1 bottoming read is the only thing keeping me from rounding out of sheer annoyance
its never the floor lol, spoken from experience. 21.32 is only 5 percent down, one bad candle from testing everyones conviction
5 percent to 21.32 is one red candle on this token. respect the hold but the buffer is thin enough that the label barely matters
22.44 against a 31.98 high is only a -30% drawdown in a year where alts did far worse. holding boring is fine here
31.98 high feels like a lifetime ago. hold with low conviction is basically a shrug but fair, 22.44 isnt a bad entry zone if the bottom holds
the lump sum at 36,275 beating every DCA path is just survivorship of the 0.95 bottom. nobody was lump summing at 95 cents with conviction
the 0.95 lump sum flex only works because the backtest starts at the literal bottom. run the same sim from the 31.98 high and DCA wins easily
run the sim from literally any month except the 0.95 bottom and the conclusion flips. backtest starting points are doing all the work
this. run the same lump sum sim from the 31.98 high instead of 0.95 and DCA wins walking. the starting point IS the argument and they picked the bottom
exactly, the lump sum at 0.95 only looks genius in a backtest. in real time you DCA because the alternative is catching knives on the way to a 95 percent drawdown
exactly, lump sum at 0.95 is survivorship with extra steps. dca from anywhere near 31.98 is the honest sim
893 percent in a year and the verdict is wait. the backtest more than doubled at 50 percent win rate, i dunno, this one feels skittish
893 percent in a year gets a low conviction wait while bdx at rsi 80.9 got high conviction buy. consistency is not this models strong suit
came to say the bdx comparison, an rsi 80.9 buy next to this cautious hold tells you the conviction dial is mostly vibes
22.44 held twice and venice pro subs keep paying for inference, thats the actual fundamental under the wait rating
a 15k hold on something with a 95 percent historical drawdown. position sizing is doing all the risk management here, the rating is decoration
A hold on a 15k plan after -29.8% off 31.98 is refreshingly boring. Most writeups would force a buy at stage 1 bottoming.