Deep Dive Analysis
Venice Token (VVV)
2026-10-26 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
24.58
24.58
52W HIGH
31.98
31.98
DRAWDOWN
-23.1%
-23.1%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d
VVV Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 4.30
Low: 0.95
Now: 24.58
Low: 0.95
Now: 24.58
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 49.2 | ADX (14) | 10.6 |
| 50d MA | 25.65 | 200d MA | 16.42 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 22.06 | Resistance | 30.03 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.65%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| VVV | -14.8% | +46.4% | +56.0% | +471.1% |
| BTC | -6.3% | +1.8% | +24.8% | +19.1% |
| ETH | -14.1% | -6.1% | +33.3% | +17.0% |
| SOL | -16.1% | +2.8% | +40.9% | +18.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
18,441
RETURN
+22.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-47.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| VVV | +22.9% | +66.9% | -47.2% | 9 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (VVV)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +471.1% | 25,038 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +67.7% | 25,157 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +69.5% | 25,427 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +54.3% | 23,151 |
VVV Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 22.29 (-9.3%) |
| Target 1 | 27.00 (9.9%) |
| Target 2 | 29.00 (18.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-19 | BUY | 14.05 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 17.78 | +26.6% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 16.08 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 25.88 | +61.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 22.63 | |
| 2026-10-09 | SELL | 22.79 | +0.7% |
| 2026-10-12 | BUY | 24.69 | |
| 2026-10-13 | SELL | 22.36 | -9.4% |
| 2026-10-16 | BUY | 24.76 | |
| 2026-10-17 | SELL | 22.80 | -7.9% |
| 2026-10-21 | BUY | 25.50 | |
| 2026-10-24 | SELL | 25.07 | -1.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-26 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
RSI 49 and ADX at 10 is the most asleep chart ive seen all week. first close above 24.58 wakes it up, until then snooze
4.30 to 24.58 in a year and the call is HOLD at low conviction? cold water on a 471% run ngl
HOLD after a 471% run is just protecting gains. the 200d MA at 16.42 is the line that matters, everything above it is noise
trend systems are always late to the party. the 200d MA at 16.42 does the heavy lifting, the rest is noise
RSI 49 and ADX at 10, pure sideways chop. al the 471% crowd is asleep at the wheel
the 15k deployment angle is the whole story here. compute demand is real revenue, everyone else in the thread is just staring at the RSI