Deep Dive Analysis
XRP (XRP)
2026-09-17 17:01 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.31
1.31
52W HIGH
3.65
3.65
DRAWDOWN
-64.2%
-64.2%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 35.3), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.21)
Bearish factors: death cross, MACD-, far below high, vol 1.36x on down day
XRP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2.09
Low: 0.49
Now: 1.31
Low: 0.49
Now: 1.31
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 47.2 | ADX (14) | 35.3 |
| 50d MA | 1.24 | 200d MA | 1.27 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.00 | Resistance | 1.68 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.56%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| XRP | -10.2% | +20.1% | -8.1% | -37.6% |
| BTC | -5.0% | +19.5% | -5.5% | -15.8% |
| ETH | -2.5% | +31.4% | +5.2% | -20.6% |
| SOL | -8.1% | +33.4% | +7.8% | -26.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
29,133
RETURN
-16.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-18.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| XRP | -16.8% | -39.1% | -18.8% | 39 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (XRP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -37.6% | 14,849 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -20.3% | 27,889 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -23.1% | 26,916 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -16.6% | 29,205 |
XRP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.16 (-11.1%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (53.2%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (53.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 1.42 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 1.40 | -1.8% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 1.42 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 1.39 | -1.5% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 1.34 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | 1.36 | +1.6% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 1.37 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 1.34 | -1.9% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 1.42 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 1.28 | -9.6% |
| 2026-09-16 | BUY | 1.30 | |
| 2026-09-17 | SELL | 1.31 | +0.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-17 17:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
buy signal at 1.31 with the 52w high sitting at 3.65. oliver wants people to deploy 5,250 into a -64 percent drawdown because a chart said stage 2 lol
Stage 2 means the trend already turned. You are joining a move in progress, and the stop at 1.16 keeps the loss small.
joining a move in progress is fine until the 1.16 stop gets gapped through overnight. xrp famously does not do orderly exits
gaps are real but 1.31 down to 1.16 is a lot of air to skip. xrp would need a full weekend flush to blow through it, and it has done exactly that before, may 2021 says hi
that may 2021 weekend flush is exactly why the 1.16 stop needs an asterisk. if you cant watch the chart sunday night the stop is decoration
the may 2021 flush was a 30 percent sunday wick, no alert saves a stop that gaps past 1.16 while you sleep. size the position like the stop might not fill
xrp gaps arent really a thing, it trades around the clock lol. a wick through 1.16 overnight is the real risk there, call it what it is
5 bull vs 4 bear factors is barely an edge lol. that line alone should have knocked the conviction down from high to medium
an edge is an edge. the backtest over 2 years of 50/200 crossovers is the actual system, the conviction label is just decoration on top
stage 2 is the entry signal, not the drawdown report. you either buy the turn at 1.31 with a 1.16 stop or you buy confirmation at 2 and complain about the entry. pick one
respect the discipline of the 1.16 stop at least. most of the xrp army has never heard of risk management in their life
1.16 stop on a 1.31 entry is like 11 percent of downside. oliver sized it properly at least, most buy calls dont even bother with exits
obv rising while a death cross is still active is a strange combo. the article basically admits its own trend signals disagree with each other
obv leads, crosses lag. by the time the death cross flips the entry is 2 bucks not 1.31. disagreeing signals are how early entries look
obv turning up while the crosses lag is literally how bottoms form. wait for every signal to agree and the entry is 2.10 instead of 1.31
entry at 1.31 versus waiting for every cross to agree at 2.10 is the whole trend following trade. the death cross crowd ends up buying the top of the breakout
1.31 against a 3.65 52w high and an Oliver Schmidt buy call with 35k. someone believes in the comeback arc
35k on a stage 2 call at 1.31 is conviction i dont have. still, rsi 47 with obv rising is the best combo xrp has printed since spring, the arc is at least plausible now
Deploying 35k into XRP in this state feels brave. I would want to see the RSI and volume sections before trusting a plan like this
the RSI and volume sections are right there in the factor table, 5 bull vs 4 bear. its a coin flip with a tight stop, not blind conviction
the rsi is right there in the snapshot, 47.2, plus 1.36x volume on a down day listed under bear factors. the table is not hiding anything, you just didnt scroll
^ brave is one word for it lol. bought xrp at 2.40 in january, still healing
bought at 2.40 and still here, respect. at least olivers entry has a stop, mine was just vibes and hopium
rsi 47.2 is a dead zone, neither oversold nor breaking out. the entire bull case hangs on obv turning while every crossover still says no