Deep Dive Analysis
Flare (FLR)
2026-09-10 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-83.5%
-83.5%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 38.7)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, RSI weak (44.4), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.62)
FLR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.4 | ADX (14) | 38.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.99%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FLR | -9.3% | -4.4% | -16.5% | -42.0% |
| BTC | +5.9% | +22.4% | -1.7% | -14.0% |
| ETH | +5.0% | +40.0% | +5.4% | -21.9% |
| SOL | +14.2% | +28.3% | +18.8% | -24.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,710
RETURN
-28.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FLR | -28.6% | -52.0% | -31.4% | 45 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FLR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -42.0% | 4,182 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -41.8% | 8,734 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -39.0% | 9,149 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -34.2% | 9,868 |
FLR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-10.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.3% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.6% |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.4% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
SELL call at 0.01 when the 52w high is 0.04 is bold. most analysts wait for a bounce before dunking on it lol
the timing question is fair but the FAssets volume line in the piece is basically flat. with no catalyst on the table, late sell calls still beat early buy calls on this one
flat FAssets volume is the entire verdict honestly. every flare bull case starts and ends with the same chart that refuses to move
selling 75 percent down is the analysts way of saying dont average in. bold would be a BUY here
Fair point. An analyst calling SELL 75% down is usually the bounce signal, the FAssets chart is the only thing arguing otherwise.
a BUY at 0.01 with FAssets volume still flat would just be vibes with extra steps. the SELL is late, its not wrong
Down 75% from the high and Novak still says deploy into a sell thesis. Honestly respect the conviction even if I disagree
deploying into your own SELL call is either conviction or content. either way the FAssets chart has been flat longer than most holders patience
@Rui i held FLR through the whole drawdown from 0.04. this article is just salt in the wound at this point
conviction is easy when its someone elses 15k on the line lol. deploying fresh capital into a Stage 3 topping pattern is certainly a choice
always easy to deploy paper money. my FLR bag from 0.03 disagrees with the strategy either way
0.03 entry crew checking in, we ride to zero or meaning. the 15k SELL plan at least has numbers behind it, my cope only has hope
SELL at these levels feels late tbh, flare bled from the 0.04 high all year. what actually flips the thesis bullish
honestly only FAssets volume. the second that line tilts up the SELL ages like milk, until then its just bleeding patience
the second that line tilts up it wont be retail catching it. FAssets volume moving means institutions moved first and the rating ages badly for everyone who sold at 0.01
FAssets volume is the only real catalyst. Until that shows up the sell rating is fair.
FAssets volume is the only lever. if that line goes vertical the SELL ages badly, until then Novak is right
FAssets is the lever but its been the lever for two years. SELL at 75% down is just admitting the catalyst never showed up
two years is generous, its been the pitch since the airdrop. SELL at 0.01 is just the analyst finally saying the quiet part out loud
been holding since the drop myself and honestly the SELL finally reading like realism instead of fud is the part that stings most
same, held from way up top. the SELL reading like realism instead of fud is the actual capitulation signal for the rest of us
capitulation takes on a token at 0.01 are how bottoms look in hindsight. still not buying tho, FAssets volume would have to 10x just to matter
two years of the same lever IS the answer, thats the brutal part. even a bounce from 0.01 just means the exit gets slightly less ugly for the 0.03 crew
that chart has been flat for so long its basically furniture at this point lol
flat so long its basically load bearing furniture. even the SELL thesis stopped moving it lol
15k portfolio breakdown on a coin trading at a cent. the decimals alone make my eyes water
two years of the FAssets pitch with a flat chart to show for it. the quiet part finally said out loud is just exhaustion wearing a rating
a SELL thesis with actual position sizing on a flat coin beats another hype piece. disagree on the target but respect the math