The most important number in Robinhood’s third-quarter earnings report was not about stocks or options. Event contracts — the formal name for the prediction markets business that lets users bet on elections, sports, and Fed decisions — generated 173 million USD in revenue. Cryptocurrency trading, once the app’s hottest story, brought in just 120 million USD. The betting parlor has officially outgrown the crypto desk.
A quiet crossover, two quarters in the making
The shift did not happen overnight. Robinhood earned 104 million USD from event contracts in the first quarter of 2026, 156 million USD in the second, and 173 million USD in the third, according to its earnings materials. That is 433 million USD for the first nine months of the year, with quarterly revenue up about 66 percent from the first quarter to the third.
Event contracts now account for roughly 12.1 percent of Robinhood’s total net revenue of 1,424 million USD. And the crossover with crypto is old news by Wall Street standards: it actually happened in the second quarter, when event contracts brought in 156 million USD against 100 million USD from crypto trades. In the third quarter, the gap simply widened as crypto revenue fell 55 percent from a year earlier.
Coinbase is racing down the same road
Robinhood is not alone. On October 29, Coinbase disclosed that its prediction markets business has surpassed 200 million USD in annualized net revenue. The company reported 82 percent compound quarterly growth in prediction-market revenue over the product’s operating history, with daily traders up more than 60 percent quarter over quarter.
Coinbase Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas framed the milestone as strategic, not just financial. The new revenue stream is less correlated with crypto volatility, she said, and helps make the company more resilient across market cycles. Translation: when trading volumes dry up in a bear market, people still want to bet on outcomes.
Not every platform is seeing the same payoff. Gemini’s second-quarter filing showed just 524,000 USD in prediction-market revenue — about 1.2 percent of its 45 million USD total. Its first-half figure of 968,000 USD implies roughly 18 percent quarterly growth, respectable but tiny. Gemini’s real diversification story in that quarter came from services revenue, which grew 149 percent year over year while exchange revenue fell 38 percent.
Crypto.com launched its OG prediction platform in February, with its CEO citing 40-fold weekly growth over six months, though no revenue figures were disclosed. Bybit launched Bybit Prediction in June focused on football, and Phemex went live in April with markets powered by Polymarket. OKX took a more cautious route, running a points-based campaign with no real funds involved. The spread is striking: prediction revenue ranges from about 1 percent of the top line at Gemini to over 12 percent at Robinhood, while several platforms disclose nothing at all.
Why trading apps are chasing bets
The pattern behind the numbers is simple: prediction markets monetize attention that crypto trading no longer captures reliably. Crypto revenue swings violently with prices — Robinhood’s 55 percent year-over-year decline came during a stretch when the Binance hack and post-Fed jitters kept retail traders cautious. Event contracts, by contrast, generate fees on outcomes people follow regardless of market direction: elections, playoffs, rate decisions, award shows. Coinbase noted another knock-on effect: users who arrive to trade predictions also generate incremental spot crypto volume. The products are not just replacing crypto revenue — in some cases they are pulling traders back toward it.
For platforms, the economics are attractive. Each event creates its own mini-market with eager flow, and the house collects fees whether users win or lose. The risk is legal, not commercial. Robinhood explicitly warned in its filings that enforcement actions, litigation, or changes in law could prevent it from continuing to offer event contracts. The sector is still fighting state-level battles — including a high-profile criminal case in Utah over a 10 USD undercover bet — that could redraw the map at any time.
What this means for you
If you trade on Robinhood or Coinbase, expect prediction markets to keep creeping into your feed, your notifications, and eventually your portfolio screens. The apps are following the revenue, and right now the revenue is in outcomes, not just tokens. Two cautions apply. First, a fee line growing 66 percent in three quarters attracts regulators the way honey attracts bears — the same platforms now promoting bets may face restrictions that change the product overnight. Second, prediction markets reward the same discipline crypto does: small positions, clear theses, and no betting money you cannot lose. The platforms diversifying away from crypto volatility is smart for their shareholders; you diversifying away from any single app’s fortunes is just as smart for you.
coinbase watched robinhood turn fed decision bets into 12 percent of revenue and suddenly prediction markets are strategic. fast follow is the whole business model at this point
173m from fed bets and elections while crypto revenue fell 55 percent y/y. wall street found the casino it always wanted, it just needed a dress code
173M from event contracts vs 120M crypto, and that is with a quarter of the year left to grow. the poloniex kids who jumped to sports bets saw this coming
hard agree, and remember Kalshi spent years fighting just to be legal. robinhood got the timing for free
Coinbase entering now feels late. Robinhood already built the habit loop around Fed decision bets, catching up to 12 percent of total revenue will take years
coinbase already has the derivatives desk and the licenses though. they are not building from zero like kalshi did, just bolting bets onto an existing base
years feels right. robinhood got there by strapping the odds next to a stock app people already open daily, coinbase has to build that habit from zero with gamblers who already picked a home
late but not hopeless. coinbase has custody rails kalshi spent years in court for. 200m annualized within a few quarters is a running start, not a late entry
104 to 156 to 173 across three quarters, that growth curve is steeper than anything crypto did on that app lol. users just like arguing about elections with money
Steep yes, but elections are not year-round. Q4 has no federal election in the US, so the 173 could flatline while crypto revenue holds its baseline. That curve may be seasonal.
173m from event contracts vs 120m crypto at robinhood. the degens officially moved from coins to fed decision odds
same risk appetite shopping for tighter spreads. event contracts grew 66 percent q1 to q3 while crypto shrank, the app just follows where the action is
Its 12.1 percent of their total revenue now. Regulators are gonna have a very long look at this.
regulators already blessed event contracts, the framework exists. the actual question is whether coinbase can copy it without the sportsbook optics
regulators already have the cboe and kalshi frameworks sitting there. the awkward part is a brokerage app doing 433m ytd on bets with less friction than a sportsbook
coinbase wanting in after seeing 433m ytd numbers is the least surprising news of the quarter