Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-10-06 10:30 UTC · Aisha Okonkwo · 10,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.16
1.16
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-86.1%
-86.1%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 10 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (65.5), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 31.7), vol 1.47x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.58)
Bearish factors: far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.28
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.16
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.16
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 65.5 | ADX (14) | 31.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.87 | 200d MA | 0.85 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.77 | Resistance | 1.22 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.99%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | +42.8% | +62.2% | +21.6% | -8.9% |
| BTC | +13.5% | +34.0% | +16.7% | -3.8% |
| ETH | +13.1% | +45.3% | +35.2% | -9.7% |
| SOL | +24.4% | +63.4% | +47.0% | -3.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 10,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,356
RETURN
+3.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | +3.6% | -59.2% | -30.1% | 56 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 10,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -8.9% | 5,099 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.4% | 10,038 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +12.3% | 11,235 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +11.7% | 11,167 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 10,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Aisha Okonkwo (Yield / Staking Focused). If you’re managing a 10,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 2,500 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.99 (-14.8%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-14.1%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-14.1%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.42) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Yield / Staking Focused.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.94 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.99 | +5.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.05 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.14 | +8.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.14 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.06 | -6.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.04 | -1.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 1.03 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 1.07 | |
| END | SELL | 1.16 | +9.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-06 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
10 bull factors vs 1 bear and the 2 year backtest still only returned +3.6%. the dashboard looks amazing and the pnl barely moves, tells you something about signal stacking
to be fair buy and hold did -59.2% over the same window. the whole value of the system here was dodging the FIL bleed, not printing gains
signal stacking into a buy call while the 2yr pnl sits at +3.6% tells you the dashboard is for selling subscriptions, not trading. still, a 0.99 stop on a 1.16 entry is honest risk at least
signal stacking fails exactly like this, 10 bullish boxes and the pnl barely moves. one clean trend filter beats a dashboard
one trend filter vs eleven boxes and the pnl is the same, tells you ten of those boxes are decoration. the 0.99 stop is the only line doing real work
the bull factor count is marketing lol. give me the stop level and the atr and skip the dashboard entirely
the 0.99 stop doing all the work is exactly right. meanwhile 1.16 barely holds above it, one bad open and this BUY reads like a different article
fil at 1.16 with a 0.99 stop, one 7 percent atr candle and the whole plan is invalidated before lunch. staged entries or nothing on this thing
exactly why staged entries matter more than the signal count here. 10 green boxes dont soften a 7 percent atr candle
staged entries is the only sane read here. 0.81 to 1.16 already happened, chasing a second tranche into 1.22 resistance is how a good plan goes bad
agreed on the staged entries, but even three tranches dont help if the first one eats the 0.99 stop before the second fills. rather wait for a 1.10 retest than catch 1.16 cold
fair, but thats exactly what the 0.99 line is for. first tranche stops out, plan is dead, you lost 3 percent of the 10k not all of it
FIL at 1.16, down 86% from 8.38, and the system counts 10 bull factors out of 11. catching knives or catching the turn, no in between lol
difference is this knife has MACD+ and OBV accumulation behind it. got in at 0.81 and im not selling straight into 1.22 resistance
same, dca’d from 0.9 down. the 3 month return at +62% is the only thing keeping me patient
0.9 dca squad checking in. if 1.22 breaks with volume the whole narrative flips fast
same squad, still sitting on a 0.94 average. the 1.22 break needs real volume tho, last two pushes died right under it
0.94 average is elite patience. and yeah the 1.22 line has rejected three pushes on declining volume now, the fourth attempt needs a real bid or its the same story again
the 0.94 average squad keeps winning the patience game. a fourth push at 1.22 with obv still climbing would be the first sign this time is different
respect for holding from 0.81 but 1.22 is where the last two FIL rallies died. id at least take half off into it
A 10k portfolio on an asset with 6.99% daily ATR is brave. position sizing better be doing the heavy lifting here
FIL at 1.16 against an 8.38 high with 7% daily ATR, and the stop sits at 0.99. that stop gets tagged in a single bad candle on this thing lol
1.16 entry with a stop at 0.99 is a tighter risk box than most of these plans get. the 7% daily ATR scares me more than any signal on the page
a 10k plan on FIL with 7% daily ATR means position sizing is the whole trade. one tag of that 0.99 stop and half the deployment window vanishes in a single red candle
10 bull factors and the only thing actually protecting a 10k deployment is a stop 15 percent below entry. the dashboard is vibes, the stop is the strategy