Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-10-06 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.16
1.16
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-86.1%
-86.1%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 10 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (65.5), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 31.7), vol 1.47x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.58)
Bearish factors: far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.28
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.16
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.16
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 65.5 | ADX (14) | 31.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.87 | 200d MA | 0.85 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.77 | Resistance | 1.22 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.99%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | +42.8% | +62.2% | +21.6% | -8.9% |
| BTC | +13.5% | +34.0% | +16.7% | -3.8% |
| ETH | +13.1% | +45.3% | +35.2% | -9.7% |
| SOL | +24.4% | +63.4% | +47.0% | -3.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,535
RETURN
+3.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | +3.6% | -59.2% | -30.1% | 56 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -8.9% | 7,648 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.4% | 15,057 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +12.3% | 16,852 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +11.7% | 16,751 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.99 (-14.8%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-14.1%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-14.1%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.42) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.94 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.99 | +5.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.05 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.14 | +8.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.14 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.06 | -6.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.04 | -1.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 1.03 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 1.07 | |
| END | SELL | 1.16 | +9.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-06 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
golden cross, ADX 31.7, RSI 65, OBV rising and it cleared both MAs. cleanest FIL setup since the bounce off the 0.61 low, and its only 5 cents under the 1.22 resistance
setup looks good on paper but the backtest column is the reality check. +3.6% over two years across 56 trades while buy and hold did -59.2% means the signal eats chop. you will not get the entry this chart promises
^ the stop at 0.99 with 7% daily ATR is also asking to get wicked out. at least the plan caps it at 3,750 and keeps the 25% cash buffer
+3.6% over 56 trades is thin, sure, but the whole point of the 3 equal tranches at 1.16, 1.05 and 0.94 is that you never need the perfect entry. Dinesh is right that the signal eats chop though.
right, the tranche math is the whole system. +3.6% over 56 trades is boring money, FIL at 86% off the high is where boring money finally compounds
Boring is the feature. 3.6 percent across 56 trades with defined risk beats my 2024 adventure of buying the 8.38 top and praying.
correct read. 56 trades in two years is also barely a sample, one bad wick at 0.99 and the whole edge is gone
agreed the 0.61 floor holding matters, but sitting 5 cents under 1.22 after a run like this is where I trim, not add. if it clears 1.22 on real volume then the triangle target is in play.
trimming into 1.22 with only a third filled works if you already have a base. fresh position, id let tranche one ride with the 0.99 stop
the 25% cash buffer and the 3,750 max allocation are doing a lot of quiet work here. FIL is 86% off the 8.38 high so the upside story sells itself, the 0.99 stop is the part people ignore until it triggers
the 0.99 stop is 15 cents under the second tranche, so even a normal wicked day tags it. I would move it under the 0.94 buy or accept the third tranche never fills
moving the stop under 0.94 means risking an extra 12% on the third tranche though. i keep the 0.99 stop and size the tranche smaller instead
Same conclusion, the wider stop just moves the risk from probability to size. Keep 0.99 and cut the tranche instead.
the 15k plan is fine but nobody mentions FIL unlocks. stored data keeps growing yes, circulating supply keeps growing too
this. unlocks are why the 0.94 leg probably fills. supply math beats signal math at these levels
unlocks are the silent third column on every fil chart. stored data growing is real demand but circulating supply growing faster has eaten every rally since the 8.38 top
unlocks eat the rallies yes but the plan already prices that in, the 0.94 leg exists precisely because supply math beats signal math at these levels
the 0.94 leg pricing in supply math only works if the fill happens before the next unlock cliff. sometimes the tranche fills and the thesis already moved on
unlock cliff timing is the real risk on the 0.94 leg. the floor thesis only pays if stored data growth outpaces the next vesting schedule
the tranches at 1.16, 1.05 and 0.94 assume the wick down even happens. stored data growing or not, FIL loves ranging, you might sit on tranche one for months
the range point is exactly why the 0.94 tranche exists. you either believe stored data growth eventually reprices supply or you skip the setup entirely
RSI 65 into 1.22 resistance is the part nobody flags. clearing it with ADX 31.7 opens the triangle target, failing there sends you back to test 0.99 with the stop cluster
ADX 31.7 says the trend is real and RSI 65 still has room before 70 gets hot. clear 1.22 on volume and the triangle measured move opens, fail and 0.99 gets its test
everyone obsessing over the chart misses that stored data on filecoin keeps growing. 86% off the 8.38 high with real utilization is rare in this market
3750 max on a 15k plan with three tranches means each leg is basically a rounding error. triple the size on the 0.94 leg if you actually believe the 0.61 floor story
1.16 entry with a 0.99 stop on an asset 86 percent off the high, thats an honest risk profile for once. most buy calls hide the invalidation level
honest invalidation is underrated. every other buy call in my feed this week had no stop at all, just vibes and a price target
honest invalidation is why i actually read these. 0.99 stop with a 1.16 entry gives you the math before the hopium