This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Bitcoin (BTC)
USD 73,904.39
USD 126,198.07
-41.4%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (35.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.63)
Low: USD 57,747.77
Now: USD 73,904.39
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 35.3 | ADX (14) | 21.0 |
| 50d MA | USD 81,117.42 | 200d MA | USD 73,117.24 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 72,689.38 | Resistance | USD 84,840.05 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.91%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| BTC | -12.0% | -5.6% | +18.2% | +4.3% |
| BTC | -12.0% | -5.6% | +18.2% | +4.3% |
| ETH | -16.1% | -15.9% | +18.1% | +0.1% |
| SOL | -20.7% | -16.6% | +3.0% | -4.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 10,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| BTC | -4.9% | -28.9% | -25.7% | 55 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (BTC)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 10,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +4.3% | USD 7,270 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -1.8% | USD 9,820 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -6.9% | USD 9,313 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.2% | USD 9,783 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify BTC. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 72,689.38 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 84,840.05 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 69,596.00 (-5.8% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 2,154.19 (2.91%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | USD 77,830.29 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | USD 78,245.81 | +0.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | USD 77,667.57 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | USD 78,548.63 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | USD 77,403.62 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | USD 77,300.48 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | USD 81,271.74 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | USD 79,671.97 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | USD 79,823.87 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | USD 80,350.05 | +0.7% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | USD 79,115.85 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | USD 81,311.89 | +2.8% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
-41% off the high and the model still shows only 2 of 9 factors bullish. stage 1 bottoming feels generous tbh, rsi at 35 means that 72,689 support is getting tested soon
rsi 35 is exactly why bottoming calls exist though. last time the daily was this oversold the bounce toward resistance came fast. 84,840 is the line that decides it
Golden cross intact while price sits 41% below the 52w high is a strange mix. The 200d is barely holding, one more leg down and this whole model flips fully bearish.
w take. that 72,689 support is doing a LOT of heavy lifting for the bullish case lol