Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-07-22 10:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.77
0.77
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-90.8%
-90.8%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, MACD bull cross, RSI healthy (50.7), vol 1.38x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2.08
Low: 0.63
Now: 0.77
Low: 0.63
Now: 0.77
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 50.7 | ADX (14) | 17.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.77 | 200d MA | 0.97 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.70 | Resistance | 0.81 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.68%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | +5.0% | -20.2% | -11.1% | -62.8% |
| BTC | +9.9% | -14.9% | -7.1% | -33.9% |
| ETH | +19.3% | -9.8% | -8.3% | -40.6% |
| SOL | -0.1% | -10.1% | -12.3% | -46.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
29,535
RETURN
-15.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -15.6% | -75.7% | -30.1% | 38 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -62.8% | 10,239 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -44.8% | 19,314 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -45.3% | 19,138 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -39.2% | 21,273 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.70 (-9.4%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (29.4%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (29.4%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-13 | BUY | 1.05 | |
| 2026-05-14 | SELL | 1.05 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-15 | BUY | 1.01 | |
| 2026-05-16 | SELL | 0.97 | -3.9% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.96 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.94 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.97 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.01 | +3.8% |
| 2026-05-23 | BUY | 0.98 | |
| 2026-05-24 | SELL | 0.96 | -2.6% |
| 2026-05-25 | BUY | 0.98 | |
| 2026-05-26 | SELL | 1.01 | +2.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-22 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
HOLD on something down 90% from ATH is wild. at that point youre just hoping for a miracle bounce
the strategy beat buy and hold by 60 points though, thats the whole point of the trend following system
FIL at $0.77 with a 52w high of $8.38 is brutal. the DePIN narrative carried it to $8 and then just evaporated
47% win rate on 38 trades is actually decent for a mechanical system on a coin this volatile
47 percent win rate on 38 trades beating buy and hold by 60 points. trend following works even on dying coins apparently
FIL at 77 cents down from 8.38. calling HOLD on something 90 percent below ATH is not analysis its hopium