Deep Dive Analysis
Fetch.ai (FET)
2026-07-28 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.14
0.14
52W HIGH
2.20
2.20
DRAWDOWN
-93.6%
-93.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 0 Bull / 12 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD bear cross, RSI weak (31.2), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 35.1), breakdown below lower band, vol 1.57x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.51)
FET Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.33
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.14
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.14
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 31.2 | ADX (14) | 35.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.17 | 200d MA | 0.20 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.14 | Resistance | 0.19 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.38%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FET | -13.7% | -43.8% | -33.5% | -57.1% |
| BTC | +0.1% | -16.4% | -9.4% | -30.7% |
| ETH | +6.3% | -9.2% | -12.0% | -37.8% |
| SOL | -9.3% | -12.5% | -17.7% | -46.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
16,020
RETURN
+6.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-39.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FET | +6.8% | -81.8% | -39.4% | 41 | 51% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FET)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -57.1% | 2,991 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -47.8% | 7,830 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -53.1% | 7,039 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -44.5% | 8,318 |
FET Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.13 (-10.8%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-08 | BUY | 0.23 | |
| 2026-05-09 | SELL | 0.23 | -0.6% |
| 2026-05-10 | BUY | 0.24 | |
| 2026-05-11 | SELL | 0.24 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 0.25 | |
| 2026-05-27 | SELL | 0.24 | -3.7% |
| 2026-05-29 | BUY | 0.24 | |
| 2026-05-30 | SELL | 0.28 | +13.9% |
| 2026-05-31 | BUY | 0.27 | |
| 2026-06-01 | SELL | 0.27 | +1.8% |
| 2026-06-02 | BUY | 0.24 | |
| 2026-06-03 | SELL | 0.26 | +5.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-28 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
FET at 14 cents with a 93.6% drawdown. the AI agent narrative completely collapsed on this one
RSI at 31.2 and ADX 35.1 showing strong bear trend. usually RSI this low means oversold bounce incoming but the volume ratio at 0.51 says nobody is buying
DCA 12 buys still lost 44.5%. imagine dollar cost averaging into a 93% decline thinking youre getting a discount