Deep Dive Analysis
Sei (SEI)
2026-07-28 10:32 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.04
0.04
52W HIGH
0.74
0.74
DRAWDOWN
-94.2%
-94.2%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 0 Bull / 10 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (33.6), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, vol 1.47x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.76)
SEI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.15
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.04
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.04
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 33.6 | ADX (14) | 23.0 |
| 50d MA | 0.05 | 200d MA | 0.07 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.04 | Resistance | 0.05 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.6%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SEI | -10.7% | -34.7% | -32.9% | -70.9% |
| BTC | +0.1% | -16.4% | -9.4% | -30.7% |
| ETH | +6.3% | -9.2% | -12.0% | -37.8% |
| SOL | -9.3% | -12.5% | -17.7% | -46.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
25,409
RETURN
-27.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-45.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SEI | -27.4% | -81.6% | -45.9% | 27 | 37% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SEI)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -70.9% | 4,712 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -62.9% | 12,980 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -59.4% | 14,216 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -55.7% | 15,500 |
SEI Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.04 (-9.2%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-07-18 | BUY | 0.35 | |
| 2025-08-02 | SELL | 0.27 | -23.0% |
| 2025-08-04 | BUY | 0.30 | |
| 2025-08-05 | SELL | 0.29 | -5.0% |
| 2025-08-07 | BUY | 0.31 | |
| 2025-08-11 | SELL | 0.31 | -0.9% |
| 2025-08-12 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-19 | SELL | 0.30 | -7.8% |
| 2025-08-22 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-24 | SELL | 0.31 | -3.7% |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.34 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.29 | -13.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-28 10:32 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
94% drawdown and they still have a 15% position size recommendation? feels irresponsible even for a SELL thesis. who is allocating 5k to something down 94%
@Sebastian F. 15% position on a 94% drawdown coin is wild but the volatility math checks out. at 0.04 with 4.6% daily ATR the risk per trade is manageable
block_settle_ 15pct position on a 94pct drawdown token with a daily ATR of 4.6pct. the vol is real but you are trading noise at that point not fundamentals
@Sebastian the position size is based on volatility not drawdown. a coin at 0.04 with 4.6% daily ATR moves differently than BTC. still wouldnt touch it tho
15pct is volatility sizing off the 4.6pct daily ATR. still weird to publish a target allocation on a 94pct drawdown coin tho
Anja L. 15pct is double kelly on a 4.6 daily atr and that only survives if the vol estimate is gospel. on sei it never is, the atr regime triples whenever a tranche unlocks
backtest shows -27% strategy return vs -81% buy and hold. congrats you lost less money following signals on a coin that went from 0.15 to 0.04
@Yara K. -27% vs -81% is outperforming by losing less. thats not alpha thats damage control on a token from 0.15 to 0.04. congrats on smaller losses
0.04 with a 52W high of 0.74. at some point you stop analyzing and just accept the token is dead
Sharif M. 0.04 with a 0.74 high and people still need a 35K word analysis to say dont buy it. some tokens just die, no thesis needed
the word count is the product tho. nobody clicks a 500 word post that says sei is dead, they click 35k words of backtest theater and share the charts
backtest theater is a great phrase. -27% vs -81% is still negative, they packaged underperformance as a winnable game and sold it as analysis
backtest theater, accurate. my trading journal from that stretch just says avoided. no monte carlo sim needed to skip a 94% drawdown relic
SEI at 94% down and people still running backtests to justify a SELL. just dont buy it. some analysis is complexity for the sake of complexity
Pavel J. running backtests on a token down 94% to justify a SELL is wild. just dont buy it. the analysis is complexity for complexity’s sake
They call it a deployment plan like there’s anything to deploy. A token at 0.04 off a 0.74 high needs two words, stay out. The portfolio blueprint is 34,998 words of filler after those two.
0.04 against a 0.74 high and the sell call arrives after 94pct of the damage. the easy money shorted months ago, this is a victory lap with a word count
victory lap is right. the trade was shorting near 0.15 when the bleed started. a SELL published at 0.04 is just showing up late with a spreadsheet
thesis_decay shorting near 0.15 needed borrow that actually existed. half these low float bags have 200k tokens lendable and a recall risk that eats the position before the thesis pays
borrow on low float trash is its own casino. the recall risk liquidates a correct short before the bleed ever pays you out
dead cat math, even a 3x off 0.04 lands you at 0.12, still 83 pct under the 0.74 high. the risk reward chapter should have been one paragraph
right, and 0.04 back to 0.74 is an 18x. sizing 15 pct of a portfolio around an 18x recovery requirement is lottery math dressed up as deployment strategy
4.6% daily ATR on a 0.04 token means routine 0.002 swings overnight. at that churn your stop is either so tight it gets clipped daily or so wide it means nothing. the only edge is not playing
A 35,000 word deployment plan for a position that maxes out near 5,250 dollars at 15 percent allocation. The word count is worth more than the trade.
5,250 dollars at 15 pct allocation against a 35,000 word plan. the review was hiding in the arithmetic the whole time