Deep Dive Analysis
Sei (SEI)
2026-07-28 10:32 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.04
0.04
52W HIGH
0.74
0.74
DRAWDOWN
-94.2%
-94.2%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 0 Bull / 10 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (33.6), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, vol 1.47x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.76)
SEI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.15
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.04
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.04
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 33.6 | ADX (14) | 23.0 |
| 50d MA | 0.05 | 200d MA | 0.07 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.04 | Resistance | 0.05 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.6%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SEI | -10.7% | -34.7% | -32.9% | -70.9% |
| BTC | +0.1% | -16.4% | -9.4% | -30.7% |
| ETH | +6.3% | -9.2% | -12.0% | -37.8% |
| SOL | -9.3% | -12.5% | -17.7% | -46.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
25,409
RETURN
-27.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-45.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SEI | -27.4% | -81.6% | -45.9% | 27 | 37% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SEI)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -70.9% | 4,712 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -62.9% | 12,980 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -59.4% | 14,216 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -55.7% | 15,500 |
SEI Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.04 (-9.2%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-07-18 | BUY | 0.35 | |
| 2025-08-02 | SELL | 0.27 | -23.0% |
| 2025-08-04 | BUY | 0.30 | |
| 2025-08-05 | SELL | 0.29 | -5.0% |
| 2025-08-07 | BUY | 0.31 | |
| 2025-08-11 | SELL | 0.31 | -0.9% |
| 2025-08-12 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-19 | SELL | 0.30 | -7.8% |
| 2025-08-22 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-24 | SELL | 0.31 | -3.7% |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.34 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.29 | -13.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-28 10:32 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
94% drawdown and they still have a 15% position size recommendation? feels irresponsible even for a SELL thesis. who is allocating 5k to something down 94%
@Sebastian the position size is based on volatility not drawdown. a coin at 0.04 with 4.6% daily ATR moves differently than BTC. still wouldnt touch it tho
backtest shows -27% strategy return vs -81% buy and hold. congrats you lost less money following signals on a coin that went from 0.15 to 0.04