Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-08-10 10:32 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.70
0.70
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-91.6%
-91.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (44.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 30.7)
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.53
Low: 0.63
Now: 0.70
Low: 0.63
Now: 0.70
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.3 | ADX (14) | 30.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.74 | 200d MA | 0.89 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.66 | Resistance | 0.80 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.4%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | -4.6% | -9.4% | -16.2% | -54.3% |
| BTC | +0.0% | +3.4% | -4.2% | -28.6% |
| ETH | +1.2% | +14.0% | -9.9% | -35.7% |
| SOL | -1.1% | +15.2% | -5.3% | -44.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
29,535
RETURN
-15.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -15.6% | -77.9% | -30.1% | 38 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -54.3% | 9,916 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -51.8% | 16,870 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -40.4% | 20,844 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -43.5% | 19,761 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.64 (-8.8%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (42.7%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (42.7%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-13 | BUY | 1.05 | |
| 2026-05-14 | SELL | 1.05 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-15 | BUY | 1.01 | |
| 2026-05-16 | SELL | 0.97 | -3.9% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.96 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.94 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.97 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.01 | +3.8% |
| 2026-05-23 | BUY | 0.98 | |
| 2026-05-24 | SELL | 0.96 | -2.6% |
| 2026-05-25 | BUY | 0.98 | |
| 2026-05-26 | SELL | 1.01 | +2.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-10 10:32 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
91.6% from the high and still Stage 4 downtrend. some people needed this article to finally stop averaging down
1 bull factor vs 8 bear and the bull factor is just MACD cross lol. thats not a signal thats a trap
agree on the avoid call but FIL storage use case is real, just not as a price go up token. different thing