Deep Dive Analysis
Algorand (ALGO)
2026-10-13 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.12
0.12
52W HIGH
0.60
0.60
DRAWDOWN
-80.5%
-80.5%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (51.4), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 41.7)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.78)
ALGO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.10
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.12
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.12
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 51.4 | ADX (14) | 41.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.11 | 200d MA | 0.10 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.09 | Resistance | 0.14 |
| ATR Volatility | 8.23%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ALGO | +5.0% | +45.6% | +17.5% | +14.4% |
| BTC | -2.7% | +31.9% | +31.4% | +14.8% |
| ETH | -8.1% | +34.4% | +42.9% | +18.0% |
| SOL | -8.6% | +42.1% | +57.6% | +17.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
18,345
RETURN
+22.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-36.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ALGO | +22.3% | -45.8% | -36.5% | 72 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ALGO)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +14.4% | 8,600 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -2.3% | 14,657 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +13.0% | 16,945 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +10.0% | 16,494 |
ALGO Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.10 (-16.5%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.11 | +8.6% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.12 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.14 | +13.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.13 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.12 | -1.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 0.13 | +4.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 0.13 | |
| END | SELL | 0.12 | -10.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-13 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
thirds feels right at that atr. deployed a third at 0.11, waiting on the 0.14 weekly close for the rest
ADX 41.7 with OBV still declining is the part nobody addresses. strong trend on paper but volume says accumulation hasnt started yet
or OBV is just lagging a 45 percent run off 0.08. add into a retest of 0.11 and use the 50d as invalidation instead of waiting for perfect volume
obv on alts this size is noise honestly, one wash desk moves it. adx plus price above both mas is the cleaner tell
obv lags on low float alts constantly, the 2023 run had declining obv for the first 60 percent of the move. volume shows up when 0.14 breaks, not before
adx measures trend strength, not participation. plenty of 2023 runners went 2x before obv confirmed anything
the 2023 comparison is fair but that run had exchange listings pushing it, algo has no catalyst like that lined up at 0.14
obv on algo specifically has been unreliable since the wash volume era, i stopped using it as an entry signal on this pair years ago
wash volume era ended when the incentive testnet farms dried up. obv still lies but less, the 0.78 ratio is real distribution imo
7 of 10 factors bullish and price above both the 0.11 50d and the 0.10 200d is the cleanest trend setup ALGO has printed in a long time. The 0.14 resistance is the line that decides everything.
Same read. MACD still negative and OBV declining are the only cracks, but ADX 41.7 says the move off the 0.08 low has real force behind it, not just a bounce.
0.14 is the line, agreed. last time ALGO got above the 200d it died there within days. needs a weekly close above or this is another bull trap
weekly close above 0.14 and even then im waiting for a retest. ALGO burned me twice on breakout fakes in 2025, third time im making it prove itself
weekly close plus the retest, agreed. got chopped up on the last fakeout at 0.14, this time no entry until it reclaims with actual volume
same, that fakeout took my stop too. article says 8.23 percent daily atr, even a retest entry needs a wide stop or half the 15k is gone on one wick
half size is the only sane answer yeah. 8.23 percent atr on a 0.12 coin means the stop alone eats half the position
Down 80.5% from the 0.60 high yet up 45.6% over 3 months. That divergence is exactly when a trend follower deploys instead of waiting for the old high to come back.
This. People keep anchoring to 0.60 and miss that the system buys strength, not memories. Just size the position for the 8.23% daily ATR, this one swings hard both ways.
8.23% daily ATR on an 80% down coin is exactly why im only deploying half the 15k. upside thesis is fine, the swings will shake out anyone sized too big
half of 15k is still 7.5k against an 8% daily ATR, brave. im doing thirds and adding only after 0.14 holds on volume
thirds at that atr is the correct answer. anyone going full size on an alt this volatile is just gambling
half now and the rest after a weekly close above 0.14 is the only sane way to put 15k into something doing 8.23 percent daily ATR. sized full you are just donating to the market makers
im hung up on MACD still negative while everything else lines up. momentum lagging price is common early Stage 2, but if OBV keeps declining at 0.14 this stalls
up 45.6 percent in 3 months while macd is still negative is the most algo thing ever. this coin either rips your face off or chops you to death, no in between
up 45 percent in 3 months with macd still negative is just how algo moves, one green weekly candle and it flips. the 0.14 line is the actual tell
0.14 is where the 2023 rejection started too. third of the position there, rest after a weekly close, the ADX 41.7 says the trend carries but entries still matter
three ALGO pumps since 2019 and the pattern never changes. the buy plan is fine but 0.12 needs a catalyst beyond patience