This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Ethereum (ETH)
USD 2,291.35
USD 4,953.73
-53.7%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (39.5), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 31.0), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.71)
Low: USD 1,386.80
Now: USD 2,291.35
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 39.5 | ADX (14) | 31.0 |
| 50d MA | USD 2,506.46 | 200d MA | USD 2,156.53 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 2,173.30 | Resistance | USD 2,736.79 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.46%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETH | -8.2% | -5.2% | +46.4% | +11.5% |
| BTC | -6.3% | +0.6% | +30.4% | +14.5% |
| ETH | -8.2% | -5.2% | +46.4% | +11.5% |
| SOL | -13.0% | -7.2% | +37.4% | +5.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 30,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETH | +29.4% | -9.3% | -22.6% | 63 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETH)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 30,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +11.5% | USD 20,877 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -2.0% | USD 29,410 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -3.8% | USD 28,858 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.6% | USD 29,815 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify ETH. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 2,173.30 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 2,736.79 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 2,132.88 (-6.9% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 79.23 (3.46%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | USD 1,881.37 | |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | USD 1,878.13 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | USD 1,883.99 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | USD 1,880.65 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-15 | BUY | USD 1,880.91 | |
| 2026-08-16 | SELL | USD 1,873.94 | -0.4% |
| 2026-08-17 | BUY | USD 1,912.20 | |
| 2026-08-18 | SELL | USD 1,916.46 | +0.2% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | USD 2,442.54 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | USD 2,457.69 | +0.6% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | USD 2,417.94 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | USD 2,471.91 | +2.2% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
2 bullish against 8 bearish and price still holds above 2,173 support. either the bears are priced in or the model needs recalibrating
2k eth again. held from 4,900 because of the merge thesis lol. pain
same boat. started a dca after the 1,386 low flashback, at least support at 2,173 is holding for now
holding from 4,900 as well. the merge thesis owes a lot of people a beer at this point lol
the merge thesis was about yield. eth became a bond paying 3 percent while the market repriced it like a tech stock, both things were true at once
3 percent yield on an asset that still trades like a tech stock is the whole mismatch. bond money shows up when the vol dies, not before
3 percent yield with tech stock drawdowns is the worst of both worlds. bond money never shows up at this vol
the 3 percent staking yield stopped mattering the moment eth started trading in lockstep with nasdaq futures. correlation is the discount rate now
2 bullish vs 8 bearish factors and the model only says Neutral? I would call that generous.
8 bearish factors and neutral is generous? i would call that polite. 52 week high 4,953 and we sit under 2,300 lol
the neural side is probably momentum trained, which has been begging to get long since 2,100. trend models always look pollyanna at the start of a turn
neutral at minus 54 percent from the 4,953 high is the tell. even the bear case is mostly priced, the model is just being polite about it lol
the model probably weights trend strength heavier than raw factor count. support at 2,173 holding is doing all the work in that neutral call
generous is the right word. minus 54 percent from the 4,953 high and neutral reads like the model leaning on 2,173 support holding one more week
support at 2,173 has been tested four times since september and held every one. generous or not, the model is staring at the same level the rest of us are
2,173 holding once means nothing until it holds twice. neutral at minus 54 percent is the model hedging its own inputs
minus 54 percent from the 4,953 high and still labeled neutral. the monitor needs a bear rating, this is just polite