Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-09-22 17:00 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.01
1.01
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-88.0%
-88.0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (66.7), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 27.9), vol 1.47x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.61)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.59
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.01
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 66.7 | ADX (14) | 27.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.77 | 200d MA | 0.84 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.65 | Resistance | 1.12 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.27%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | +29.7% | +31.4% | -4.1% | -36.5% |
| BTC | +11.4% | +29.7% | +6.4% | -11.0% |
| ETH | +13.4% | +42.2% | +20.2% | -18.3% |
| SOL | +17.0% | +49.8% | +27.0% | -20.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,328
RETURN
-13.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -13.9% | -57.0% | -30.1% | 50 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -36.5% | 5,409 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -10.0% | 10,794 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -10.1% | 10,793 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.1% | 11,752 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.82 (-18.4%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-1.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-1.0%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.18) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.79 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 0.80 | +2.0% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | 0.95 | |
| 2026-09-14 | SELL | 0.94 | -1.8% |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | 0.82 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | 0.81 | -1.2% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 0.84 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 0.94 | +12.3% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.96 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 0.94 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 0.99 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 1.01 | +2.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-22 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
vol ratio 1.61 with OBV climbing is the quiet part of this report. everyone fixates on the death cross but someone is clearly buying every dip under 1.05
1.61 vol ratio under 1.05 does read like accumulation. if FIL reclaims 1.20 the death cross talk evaporates fast
1.61 vol ratio under 1.05 agreed, though reclaiming 1.20 needs the weekly close first. every FIL breakout this year died on the sunday candle
every FIL breakout dying on the sunday candle is painfully accurate. want the weekly close above 1.05 before trusting any vol print under it
vol ratio 1.61 with OBV up is quietly the most bullish pair in the whole report. someone absorbing every dip under 1.05 before a weekly close is the tell to watch
the weekly close under 1.05 is the whole game here. if it holds and OBV keeps grinding up, the death cross becomes a lagging footnote instead of the headline
agreed, and the OBV grind while price sits at 1.01 is the part nobody screenshots. death cross traders are trading last month
someone buying every dip under 1.05 while price holds over the 50d at 0.77. either a believer or a wallet building an exit range, no in between
The OBV signal is nice but a 12k deployment across 9 bull factors still sizes like a starter position. They know FIL needs the weekly close too
bought FIL at 4 dollars in 2024. reading a BUY call at 1.01 hurts in a way the deployment plan cannot quantify lol
the 2024 bag at 4 dollars while the model calmly tables a DCA from 1.01 is peak Filecoin content. OBV climbing under 1.05 is interesting but the death cross owns this chart
same, my 2024 bag from 4 dollars is down 75 and the only comfort is a fresh BUY signal at 1.01. we ride i guess
same boat, cost basis around 3.80. the 12 buy DCA row at -2.1 percent is break even through an 88 percent drawdown, thats the only cope that works
cost basis 3.80 twin here, sold half on the last bounce over 1.10. the -2.1% dca row is cope math but its working cope
Averaging from 4 down to 1 is the authentic FIL experience. At least the DCA table assumes you keep buying, which is more honest than most analysis posts
88 percent off the high and still only starter size. FIL at parity is either the deal of the cycle or the last stop before sub 1, no in between
Sub 1 would break the entire historical range though. Every prior FIL bottom held parity while OBV kept rising like this, the chart is arguing with itself
Parity holding while OBV climbs happened in 2020 too and then FIL did a 6x off it. Not saying that repeats from 1.01, just noting the pattern isnt as clean as you think
12k on an 88 percent drawdown is either brave or the model just assumes storage demand eventually catches up to the 8 dollar bagholders. took the starter tranche at 1.03 myself
starter tranche at 1.03 is smart but the 8 dollar bagholders arent selling into this, theyre gone. this rally rides on new money believing the storage narrative again
gone yes but the 2021 supply overhang still exists, its just inert. new money doesnt need their permission to squeeze 1.20 on a thin float
52 week high at 8.38 and now barely holding 1. people keep calling this a chart setup when its just a slow bleed with good PR. show me storage revenue actually growing first
storage revenue question is fair but onchain storage deal growth has been climbing all year. the chart is just the last thing to notice
fair on the 8.38 bagholder graveyard but OBV grinding up at parity is not slow bleed behavior. bleed prints OBV rollover, this prints someone eating every sell under 1.05
88 percent off the high and the model still says starter tranche only. thats the tell. nobody sizes a full 12k into parity without hedging