Deep Dive Analysis
Uniswap (UNI)
2026-10-02 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
9.13
9.13
52W HIGH
10.22
10.22
DRAWDOWN
-10.7%
-10.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (62.3), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 34.1), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.67)
Bearish factors: MACD-
UNI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 5.22
Low: 2.40
Now: 9.13
Low: 2.40
Now: 9.13
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 62.3 | ADX (14) | 34.1 |
| 50d MA | 6.43 | 200d MA | 4.13 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 5.95 | Resistance | 10.22 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.58%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| UNI | +51.9% | +110.0% | +169.5% | +74.9% |
| BTC | +12.0% | +37.5% | +12.2% | -3.0% |
| ETH | +9.8% | +48.4% | +31.6% | -6.3% |
| SOL | +19.4% | +68.0% | +43.5% | -3.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
67,883
RETURN
+94.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-25.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| UNI | +94.0% | +182.3% | -25.9% | 26 | 35% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (UNI)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +74.9% | 98,809 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +163.7% | 92,280 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +157.5% | 90,132 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +167.1% | 93,482 |
UNI Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 8.39 (-8.1%) |
| Target 1 | 10.00 (9.6%) |
| Target 2 | 11.00 (20.5%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.33) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-04 | BUY | 3.90 | |
| 2026-08-05 | SELL | 3.85 | -1.4% |
| 2026-08-06 | BUY | 4.04 | |
| 2026-08-07 | SELL | 4.01 | -0.7% |
| 2026-08-08 | BUY | 3.98 | |
| 2026-08-09 | SELL | 4.00 | +0.6% |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 3.99 | |
| 2026-08-13 | SELL | 3.57 | -10.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 3.76 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 7.05 | +87.4% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 6.85 | |
| END | SELL | 9.13 | +33.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-02 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
RSI at 62 with ADX 34 and OBV rising, this trend has legs. The lone MACD bear factor is why I am sizing down though. Waiting for a push through 10.22 before adding more.
MACD weakness showed up on UNI back in August too and price still ground higher. With price sitting way above the 200d at 4.13, momentum traders are clearly in control.
9.13 with support at 5.95 gives a decent risk/reward for a deploy signal. 8 bull factors vs 1 bear is about as clean as these scans ever get.
8 bull factors vs 1 bear and the one bear is MACD flipping negative. i have been burned by that exact setup twice this year, tread carefully
macd bearish crosses on UNI have fakeouted like 3 times this year alone lol, weak signal on its own
got chopped up by the same 8 bull vs 1 MACD bear setup on another token this summer. sized in anyway, the 5.95 support keeps the invalidation close
that 5.95 invalidation is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this thesis. below it this turns into a stage 3 chop fest real quick
RSI at 62 with ADX 34 and OBV rising is basically textbook stage 2 continuation. bought the golden cross retest weeks back, this just confirms it for me
golden cross retest entry respect. question is whether you take profit into 10.22 or hold, last time UNI tagged a level like that it wicked hard before continuing
half off into 10.22, always. holding a full position through the level that wicked hard last cycle is how you end up watching the golden cross from underwater
depends on your timeframe tbh. trimmed half at 9.80 last cycle and watched it run another 20 percent without me. the 50d rising part of the signal says hold the rest
depends on your timeframe tbh. trimmed half at 9.80 last cycle and watched it run another 20 percent without me. the 50d rising part of the signal says hold the rest
10.7% off the 52w high is nothing. vol ratio 1.67 says accumulation, this thing reclaims 10.22 before too long
the 5.95 support doing all the heavy lifting here. one clean wick below and this 35k plan becomes a donation to the LPs before TP1 at 10.22 is even in play
35k deployment while UNI sits 10.7 percent under the 52w high, more conviction than me lol. the 1.67 vol ratio is the number that matters in this whole scan
vol ratio 1.67 is encouraging but UNI volume has a habit of printing big on governance news then fading within the week. i want to see the retest hold for a few daily closes before trusting it
An ADX of 34.1 with RSI still at 62 is about as clean as these signals get. Deployed a smaller tranche and kept dry powder for a 50 day retest instead of going all in.