Bitcoin Bear Market 'Over' as Price Metric Copies 2023 Recovery: CryptoQuant CEO
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Featured image alt: Bitcoin price chart showing bear market recovery
Bitcoin appears to have exited its bear market based on profitability metrics that mirror early 2023 signals, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The data analyst firm identified a bear-market reversal signal that was previously seen at the beginning of Bitcoin's 2023 recovery phase, suggesting a potential shift toward favorable market conditions.
The key metric revolves around Bitcoin profitability and exchange inflow data, which historically has indicated the end of prolonged downturns. When market participants start selling at a loss less frequently and new coins entering exchanges decrease, it often signals that the capitulation phase has ended. This pattern appears to be repeating now, with profitability metrics aligning closely with their 2023 counterparts.
CryptoQuant's analysis shows that Bitcoin's network has been experiencing reduced exchange inflows and improved profitability conditions since the summer of 2026. These conditions, combined with sustained institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs, have created an environment where market participants are increasingly optimistic about future price movements.
The 2023 precedent serves as an important reference point, as that recovery phase eventually led to a significant bull run that pushed Bitcoin to all-time highs. Current market conditions suggest that if this pattern holds, we could be entering another multi-year upward trajectory for cryptocurrency markets.
One critical factor supporting this recovery thesis is the growing institutional interest. Major financial institutions continue to allocate capital toward digital assets, with recent regulatory clarity around spot Bitcoin ETFs providing a solid foundation for long-term growth. This institutional adoption has reduced market volatility and increased the stability of Bitcoin's price action.
Market participants are also noting improvements in on-chain metrics that historically precede bull markets. These include reduced miner capitulation, increasing long-term holder activity, and decreasing supply on exchanges. These indicators collectively suggest that the psychological shift from bearish to bullish sentiment may be underway.
However, analysts caution that while historical patterns can provide valuable insights, they don't guarantee future outcomes. Market conditions, regulatory environments, and macroeconomic factors can all influence whether the current recovery will follow a similar trajectory to 2023.
The key takeaway for investors is that while the technical indicators are increasingly favorable, a diversified approach and risk management remain crucial in navigating what could be the early stages of a new market cycle.
Tags: bitcoin, cryptoquant, market analysis, blockchain technology
Ki Young Ju has called tops and bottoms wrong plenty of times. the 2023 signal worked sure, but one precedent isnt a pattern
Fair, but the exchange inflow data is hard to argue with. supply keeps leaving and nobody is panic selling at a loss anymore
ki young ju called recoveries off these same metrics before. guy has a better track record than most of ct combined
Profitability metrics looked great in early 2023 too and we still chopped for months. I will believe it when we reclaim the range.
sideways chop after the signal was still a 60% move off the bottom tho, ur arguing against ur own bags
the chop after the signal was still the entry window tho. nobody rings a bell at the exact bottom, you get weeks of doubt by design
every ceo with a dashboard says the bear is over the second we get two green weeks. wake me when we actually break the previous high
by the time we break the previous high the move is half over. the signal fires early on purpose, complaining about that is missing the point
the 2023 signal gave weeks of chop below 30k before the real move. early and ugly is the design, not the flaw
Reduced miner capitulation plus steady ETF inflows is the part people skip. this cycle has structural demand, 2023 didnt
structural demand until the etf flows flip negative for a week, then everyone remembers these bids are momentum chasers in a suit
etf flows flipping negative for one week would also flip half the bullish replies here. momentum demand cuts both ways and nobody hedges for it
flows went negative for weeks in the spring and price held anyway tho. the bid is stickier than the 2023 comparison crowd admits
the standing etf bid is the real difference maker here. 2023 recovered on retail fumes, this time there is a buyer of size on every dip
the etf bid point is stronger than people admit. spring 2023 had zero structural buyers, every dip since has been absorbed. different market, same chart shape tho
Same signal as 2023, different macro. Rates were about to cut back then. Show me the follow-through before calling the bear dead.
follow-through means different things to everyone. if we hold 70k through september that IS the follow-through imo
holding 70k through september with macro still uncertain would settle it. half the bear callers are just seasonality merchants anyway
the seasonality crowd will flip bullish on october 1st citing the exact same chart they used to scare you this week
flip is already scheduled, watch. same accounts posting the 2023 overlay this week will be reposting it as a buy signal the minute we close a green september candle
Rates were the tailwind in 2023 and cuts are basically priced for this meeting anyway, so the macro excuse is weaker than you make it sound.
exchange inflow data plus the etf bid is nice but ki young ju’s signal is backward looking by design. im long anyway, just not because of a dashboard
every dashboard signal is backward looking by design, the 2023 one just happened to resolve upward. doesnt make the chop any easier to sit through
ki young ju signal plus exchange outflows plus miners off capitulation, everything lines up until it doesnt. half a position here, rest if we hold 70k thru september
profitability metrics finally agreeing with price instead of diverging is the part people skip. still trimming into strength until the rate decision is behind us though
ki young ju signals are fine but last time we chopped under 30k for two months after the same call. holding through the boring part is the actual trade