This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Hedera (HBAR)
USD 0.0601
USD 0.4003
-85.0%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (25.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 30.0), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.34)
Low: USD 0.0587
Now: USD 0.0601
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 25.3 | ADX (14) | 30.0 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.0826 | 200d MA | USD 0.0794 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.0593 | Resistance | USD 0.0894 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.82%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | -22.8% | -19.6% | -17.9% | -36.1% |
| BTC | -16.9% | -13.2% | +4.9% | +1.7% |
| ETH | -19.2% | -24.7% | +5.9% | -1.7% |
| SOL | -26.0% | -25.7% | -7.7% | -7.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 35,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +19.9% | -65.0% | -31.5% | 43 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 35,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -36.1% | USD 13,592 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -36.4% | USD 22,257 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -36.0% | USD 22,415 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -33.3% | USD 23,333 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify HBAR. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.0593 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.0894 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.0531 (-11.6% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.003498 (5.82%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | USD 0.0904 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | USD 0.0930 | +2.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | USD 0.0955 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | USD 0.0935 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | USD 0.0959 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | USD 0.1219 | +27.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | USD 0.1023 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | USD 0.1047 | +2.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | USD 0.1027 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | USD 0.1025 | -0.2% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | USD 0.1019 | |
| 2026-10-14 | SELL | USD 0.0844 | -17.2% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
0.0601 against a 52w high of 0.40. -85% and the single bullish factor left is a golden cross lol
a golden cross with RSI at 25.3 and OBV distribution is a bounce trap, wouldnt read much into it
ADX 30 on a strong bear trend and volume ratio 0.34. Held from the 2021 council hype days and this is the bleakest monitor yet. Selling feels pointless here, buying feels worse.