This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Bittensor (TAO)
USD 206.87
USD 345.70
-40.2%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (33.2), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 25.2), vol 1.32x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.78)
Low: USD 152.22
Now: USD 206.87
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 33.2 | ADX (14) | 25.2 |
| 50d MA | USD 261.78 | 200d MA | USD 240.82 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 206.87 | Resistance | USD 275.67 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.0%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| TAO | -17.6% | -11.2% | -3.6% | +11.0% |
| BTC | -16.9% | -13.2% | +4.9% | +1.7% |
| ETH | -19.2% | -24.7% | +5.9% | -1.7% |
| SOL | -26.0% | -25.7% | -7.7% | -7.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 10,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| TAO | -2.1% | -8.3% | -15.9% | 24 | 42% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (TAO)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 10,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +11.0% | USD 9,168 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -12.6% | USD 8,744 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -9.2% | USD 9,078 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -9.3% | USD 9,067 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify TAO. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 206.87 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 275.67 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 194.47 (-6.0% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 6.20 (3.0%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | USD 314.66 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | USD 287.29 | -8.7% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | USD 296.28 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | USD 317.78 | +7.3% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | USD 321.21 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | USD 319.65 | -0.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | USD 308.13 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | USD 300.57 | -2.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | USD 300.83 | |
| 2026-10-20 | SELL | USD 268.11 | -10.9% |
| 2026-10-21 | BUY | USD 273.63 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | USD 271.84 | -0.7% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
206 against a 345 high, down 40 percent, and the subnet emissions just keep flowing. every tao dip buyer this year is underwater
^ this. holders absorb the emissions and price still bleeds. 206 feels cheap right up until its 180
I keep waiting for TAO to decouple from its emission schedule and it never does. The market at 206 is saying the compute story is not enough yet.